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Fueling One Billion: An Insider's Story

Fueling One Billion: An Insider's Story
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Extraordinary, unique, and scholarly!
“I found Professor Lu’s Fueling One Billion to be an extraordinary tour de force. I have never before encountered a book on energy written by one person that exhibits the scholarship and expertise of Fueling One Billion. I should think it will become a classic in the energy literature which other books on energy will be measured.... The book is unique in that Professor Lu was a real insider, as well as being a renowned authority on energy.”—Alvin Weinberg, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge

A first-rate analysis!
“Dr. Lu has written a first-rate analysis of the Chinese energy situation. It will be “must” reading for anyone who is seriously concerned about China’s impact on international energy markets and on the global environment.... The book will be of interest both to political scientists and to economists who specialize in developmental issues.”—Alan S. Manne, Professor of Operations Research, Stanford University

The Chinese energy situation
In December 1979, at the beginning of Chinese economic reforms, about a dozen senior experts in the Chinese energy community were called together in a small meeting room of the State Science and Technology Commission by Fang Yi, then the chairman of the commission, to speak out from their “private” viewpoints about the real Chinese energy situation. Most of the participants were not only famous pioneers in various energy sectors, including coal, petroleum, electricity, hydro-power, and rural and nuclear energy; but were also well-known “technical dissidents in their fields, used to holding opinions that differed from the inadequate and unscientific technical and even political policies of the past regime.

A picture of the Chinese energy crisis was painted before Fang’s eyes: the blackout of an entire urban district, the unheated homes with crying babies, the exhausted peasants complaining over cold food they had been unable to cook, the idle industrial equipment sidelined by power shortages, and the suffiering miners in the bankrupt coal industry. It was then dear that Chinese economic reform could not be successful without adequate supplies of energy.

Most of the speakers in that symposium were so emotional that someone later recalled the atmosphere as being “full of a smell of gunpowder.”...The elite thus began to break into the “forbidden city” of state-level policymaking. The winter was over; the ice was melting.

In Fueling One Billion, Professor Lu provides an analysis of the present energy situation in China based on first-hand observation and information, including a history of the development of energy policy in China and case histories of projects undertaken in energy production and conservation.

Table of Contents

List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

PART 1. The Evolution of a Scientific Energy Policy
Chapter 1. Breaking into a Forbidden City
How a Scientific Approach to Energy Policymaking Was Born
The Elasticity Curve and Its Story
1. 1. The Melting of the Ice
1.2. Disastrous Policymaking: “Patting the Head”
1.3. Binh of a Scientific Approach to Energy Policy
Chapter 2. The Inescapable Denominator—One Billion
Rediscovery of Chinese Energy Reality
2.1. Reality and Special Features of the Chinese Energy-Economy
2.2. The Coexistence of Abundance and Scarcity
2.3. Coexistence of Vastness and Diversity
2.4. Coexistence of Modernization and Backwardness
2.5. Coexistence of Central Planning and the Market Economy
Chapter 3. The “Fifth Energy Source” Energy Consumption and Conservation Policy.
3.1. Energy Consumption in the PRC
3.2. Reasons for High Energy Intensity
3.3. Chinese Energy Conservation Policy
3.4. Chinese Achievements in Energy Conservation
3.5. Potential and Limits of Chinese Energy Conservation
Chapter 4. Walking on Two Legs
Issues and Controversies behind the Rapid Growth of Chinese Energy Production
4.1. Issues and Controversies
4.2. Walking on Two Legs
4.3. Optimism and Anxiety in the Coal Industry
4.4. The Future of Oil and Gas Production
4.5. The Vanguard Lagging Behind: The Chinese Power Sector Begins to Walk on Two Legs
4.6. The “Three Kingdoms” in the Nuclear Realm
Chapter 5. Fueling the Forgotten Majority
The Energy Situation in the Chinese Countryside and Rural Energy Policy
5.1. The Rural Energy Situation
5.2. Potential Resources and Technologies Available in Rural Areas
5.3. Formulation and Implementation of Rural Energy Policy
5.4. The Experience of Chinese Rural Energy Policy
5.5. Integral Energy Planning in Rural China
Chapter 6. The Sword of Damocles
Energy-Environmental Issues of the PRC
6.1. Short-Term Local Energy- Environmental Impact
6.2. A Case Study of Urban Air Pollution
6.3. Long-Term Global Energy-Environmental Impacts
6.4. Long-Term Energy Policy Issues in China
PART II. Some Case Studies on Critical Energy
Chapter 7. The Scientific Tool for Integral Energy Planning
A National Energy-Economy Model for China
7.1. Framework for a Medium-/Long-Term National Energy-Economic Model System
7.2. Model for Energy Demand Evaluation
7.3. Model for Optimizing the National Energy Supply System
7.4. Application of the National Energy-Economic Model System
Chapter 8. Successfully Fueling Ninety Million Rural Households
The Dissemination of Improved Woodstoves
8.1. Background
8.2. Four Typical Counties
8.3. Consequences of Rural Fuel Shortages
8.4. Diffusion of Improved Stoves in China
8.5. Dissemination Policies for Improved Stoves
8.6. Organizational System for Stove Dissemination
8.7. Stove Research and Manufacturing
8.8. Propaganda and Training in the Dissemination Program
8.9. Acceptability Test
8.10. Development of the Rural Energy Industry for Improved Stoves
8.11. Financing Improved Woodstoves
8.12. Fundamental Experiences in the Dissemination Projects
8.13. Analysis of Results
8.14. Study of Prospects for Dissemination of Improved Stoves
8.15. Policy Recommendations
Chapter 9. Energy Audits and Conservation Recommendations In Five Demonstration Plants
9.1. Selection of Demonstration Plants
9.2. Preliminary Energy Audit
9.3. General Analysis of Energy Conservation Potential in Chinese Industries
9.4 Energy Conservation Measures
Chapter 10. Environmental Impact of Energy Use in Harbin
10. 1. Background
10.2. Integrated Planning for the Economy-Energy-Environment in Harbin to the Year 2000
10.3. Planning Scenarios
10.4. Energy Demand Forecasting
10.5. Energy Supply Assessment
10.6. Environmental Impact of Energy Supply Scenarios
10.7. Conclusion
Chapter 11. A Twenty-first Century Perspective on the Electricity System of China
11.1. Trends in Electricity Consumption
11.2. Trends in Electricity Supply

11.3. Institutional Framework
11.4. Key Issues in the Chinese Power Industry
Chapter 12. A Comparison of Energy Consumption, Supply, and Policy in India and the People’s Republic of China
12.1. Similarities and Differences between the Chinese and Indian Economies
12.2. Comparison of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China and India
12.3. Energy Investment
12.4. Energy Import and Export
12.5. Energy Supply
12.6. Energy Consumption
12.7. Energy Forecast
12.8. Policy Recommendations
Bibliography and References
Appendix A. The Energy Technology Policy of China
Appendix B. Energy Balance in China, 1980–1988
Appendix C. Energy Balance by Fuels in China
Appendix D. Energy Consumption by Sectors, 1980–1985
Appendix E. Sample Survey of Urban Household Expenditure on Energy
Appendix F. Sample Survey of Rural Household Expenditure on Energy
Appendix G. Official Energy Price, 1988
Appendix H. Energy Flow Diagram of China, 1986

Professor YINGZHONG LU was a pioneer nuclear engineer and educator in the People’s Republic of China. He created the first Chinese nuclear engineering faculty at Tsinghua University and led the construction of the first all-Chinese research reactor in the late 1950s. He founded the Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology in 1960 and was its director for 25 years. In 1980 Professor Lu introduced energy systems and policy research in China and participated in the study and drafting of many important energy policies. In 1985 he established and became the director of the Institute for Techno-Economics and Energy Systems Analysis, which promoted extensive international exchange and cooperation in energy studies between China and more than twenty countries.